Market Recap - 6/17~6/21
Next Week Important Events
Key Events for week of Jun 24 ~ Jun 28:
Micron Technology ****earnings - Wednesday After Hours
Jobless Claims - Thursday
GDP - Thursday
PCE - Friday
Fed Monetary Policy Report - Friday 11 AM EST
ES Recap
🚨ES 5560 is the short squeeze point. Reclaiming it means a squeeze; failing the test means a drop. We didn't even try to test this level today, which is favorable for bears.
📉 ES 5530 is a very weak support level, and it failed early today. Keep an eye on market movements and trade carefully!
Qualcomm ($QCOM) Stock Analysis
Ticker: $QCOM
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors
Current Price: $212.53
Overview
Qualcomm Inc. is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the design and development of wireless telecommunications products and services. The company is particularly known for its innovation in mobile chipsets and wireless technology.
AI Chip Development
Contrary to the trend of customizing AI chips for specific applications, Qualcomm focuses on designing AI chips for edge applications rather than the cloud. This strategic choice allows the company to cater to a growing market segment that requires powerful, efficient, and scalable AI solutions at the device level.
iPhone 15 Chip suppliers
According to a teardown analysis of Apple's iPhone 15 Pro, Qualcomm's components are prominently featured, highlighting the company's critical role in the high-end smartphone market. Specifically, Qualcomm supplies:
FR2 RF Transceivers: Key components for advanced 5G capabilities.
Snapdragon X70 Modem: Provides high-speed connectivity and enhanced network performance.
Power Management Integrated Circuits: Ensure efficient power distribution and management within the device.
These integrations not only showcase Qualcomm's technological prowess but also underscore the company's importance to major clients like Apple, reinforcing its market position.
Partnerships and Collaborations
Recently, Samsung's chairman met with Qualcomm's CEO, along with leaders from Meta and Amazon, to discuss potential collaborations. These discussions revolved around AI and AR/VR technologies with Meta, memory chips for data centers with Amazon, and contract manufacturing for Qualcomm’s mobile chips. These high-level meetings underscore Qualcomm’s pivotal role in the tech ecosystem and its strategic importance in upcoming technological advancements.
Major Customers and Market Demand
Qualcomm is among the major customers of TSMC, along with Apple, Nvidia, and AMD. These companies have fully booked TSMC's 3nm capacity through 2026, driven by robust demand for AI accelerators, smartphone chips, and data center networking. This indicates a strong and sustained demand for Qualcomm’s advanced chip solutions, securing its production pipeline and market presence for the foreseeable future.
Competitive Landscape
Qualcomm faces significant competition in the semiconductor market. MediaTek, a major competitor, is gearing up to challenge Qualcomm with an Arm-based CPU for Microsoft’s Windows OS, aiming to enter the AI PC chip market in 2025. This competition is expected to intensify once Qualcomm's Arm exclusivity deal expires at the end of 2024. MediaTek’s entry into this space could present challenges but also drive innovation and market growth.
Investment Thesis
Qualcomm remains a solid investment in the semiconductor sector due to its:
Innovative Edge AI Solutions: Focus on edge AI applications aligns with market trends.
Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with major tech companies like Samsung, Meta, and Amazon, highlight its critical role in the industry.
Strong Customer Base: Long-term bookings with TSMC ensure a steady supply chain and production capacity.
Product Integration: Key components in major products like Apple's iPhone 15 Pro underscore Qualcomm’s market significance.
Risks
Competitive Pressure: MediaTek and other competitors could impact Qualcomm's market share. Especially after 2025 for PC market.
The Semiconductor Ecosystem
Building AI Brains
Companies like NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC) create high-performance AI processors essential for machine learning.
Optimizing Data Centers for AI
Firms like Dell (DELL) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) optimize data centers to handle AI workloads efficiently.
Making the Chips
ASML (ASML), TSMC (TSM), Lam Research (LRCX), and Applied Materials (AMAT) provide the technology to manufacture cutting-edge AI chips.
Customizing AI Chips
Analog Devices (ADI), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Arm (ARM) design custom AI chips for specialized applications.
Ensuring Chip Quality
KLA Corporation (KLAC) ensures the quality of semiconductor chips with advanced inspection tools.
Advanced Memory Solutions
Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX) provide the memory solutions essential for AI.
Provide Design Tools
Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) offer the design tools for creating complex AI chips.
Powering AI Connections
Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Texas Instruments (TXN) enable the connectivity essential for AI systems.
The Broader Ecosystem
Supporting elements include power solutions (NRG, CEG), cooling systems (SPCX, VRT), and engineering services (NVT, CLS).
First Solar (FSLR): Powering the AI Revolution with Clean Energy
Ticker: FSLR
Current Price：$258.87
Rising AI Energy Demand
AI development has drastically increased data center power needs. With over 7,000 data centers globally, companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google aim to use 100% green energy by 2030. Solar power must be a big part of this shift.
The Need for Renewable Energy
Amanda Peterson Corio from Google emphasizes the urgent need for more renewable energy sources to support AI's growth. Current data center energy consumption is challenging global renewable energy supplies.
First Solar’s Advantage
First Solar (FSLR) offers thin-film photovoltaic (PV) solar modules using cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology.
Key Applications of First Solar’s products
Utility-Scale Solar Projects: Powers large-scale solar plants.
Commercial & Industrial Uses: Reduces energy costs and emissions on-site.
First Solar is crucial for the AI revolution, offering sustainable and cost-effective solar solutions to meet the energy demands of data centers and support the green energy goals of major tech companies.
感谢喵喵这么细致的交易日记，收益匪浅